Election Postmortem 2022 - Red Ripple

Well team, we beat the red wave, or ripple, anyway. So, congrats are in order! We held every seat in the senate, even Raphael Warnock’s in Georgia, and gained one seat in Pennsylvania with John Fetterman. So Joe Biden’s executive agenda and nomination of judges can continue. Unfortunately, the House of Representatives didn’t hold with Republicans gaining nine seats, so the possibility of most positive federal action has ended. We all should lament this, despite it not being a bloodbath; I still call it a loss. At least there are some good stories in this tragic narrative as well.

It’s important to celebrate with significant victories like all trumpy state leaders and election deniers in blue and purple leaning states losing, especially here in Arizona! I’m vindicated once again in my choice of state, by being one of 17,000 votes helping to orient us in a new direction. Kari Lake was a particularly scary candidate that had an aura of invincibility, but her fate it seems was more similar to say that of Icarus on his wings of wax, so I’m particularly thrilled she lost. Across the country, the losses of candidates like her and others for governor and secretary of state significantly reduce the chance of any sort of incident that would spark mass unrest or a second coup attempt.

Some other bright spots were that Minnesota and Michigan formed democratic trifectas of government by winning majorities in their state legislatures. This is a particular marvel for Michigan after citizens there unwound the Republican gerrymandering of 2010 and got a neutral slate of maps. Pennsylvania flipped one state house, leaving its senate poised to flip control towards Democrats in 2024. Wisconsin and North Carolina, both extremely gerrymandered, each narrowly avoided republican supermajorities in their legislatures. This allows the democratic governors of each state, for now, to hold them to a stalemate on policy, and crucially preserve abortion access in North Carolina.

It’s still shocking to lose given the overwhelming spate of negative conditions that surround us today. Things like Jan 6 & election denialism, the loss of Roe v Wade, and politicians that are just anti-science, anti LGBT and anti-secular. it just boggles the mind at how people can honestly vote for these candidates, given these results and ignorant, hateful ideologies nakedly on display. These are things that need a mass repudiation. It’s frustrating as hell to see lots of bad candidates winning, most notably Ron Johnson by 1% in closely divided Wisconsin, but just about any other Republican in a further red state or district is as bad or worse than him in this era. You can mark that easily by how few stood up to Trump and remain in the next congress. 2 R’s in the house, and 3 in the senate are all that’s left of the 17 impeachers.

Republicans talked extensively about the economy, inflation, and the cost of gas as issues. I think they worked as attacks, unfortunately, as the world has convulsed post-pandemic and prices have soared globally. Left unstated is what Republicans would actually have done to address these issues. They can critique, a little bit of it rightly, high government spending. But, the whole time we’ve been struggling with high prices? Did you notice all the companies posting record profits in their shareholder earnings calls? I wish people had been more aware of this price gouging, and that the child tax credit had stayed as an option to help working families. We can thank Sinema and Manchin in the senate for not doing enough there.

The loss of the House of Reps. stings, despite an otherwise good night. Divided government is never good; very few other democracies actually function this way, with a federal government completely at odds with itself. Prepare for two years of batshit crazy investigations. It would have been nice to hold the house simply to not have to deal with this performative nonsense. Maybe there will be a silver lining in the grief that Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader, will get from dealing with an agitated right wing eager to lash out. If we’re lucky, the government won’t shut down too often and the people of Ukraine won’t be left hanging next year.

But really, wave goodbye to the end of any chances of a further federal agenda, especially electoral reform. The time to act was back in 2021 anyway, with supreme court expansion, ending gerrymandering as redistricting was happening, allowing better voting access, and granting DC & Puerto Rico statehood. Successful gerrymanders are one of several reasons that directly led to the house loss. Some examples: direct disenfranchisement in states like Florida and Ohio (Rigged for maximum partisan gain, overriding state amendments for fair maps), Tennessee and Utah (Nashville nor Salt Lake City are represented as a district). Then there are racial gerrymanders in Louisiana, Alabama and Florida explicitly to disenfranchise black folk left standing by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, New York’s Democratic attempt at an aggressive map that would have countered Florida’s in scope was denied by its courts. Unilateral disarmament is a great strategy, that was truly worth a laugh. With challenging senate elections in 2024, even if the house were to flip back, it’s likely these injustices and the rogue court will now never be checked.

Speaking of that tainted court, the public eye should turn next there as they consider Moore v Harper, which would allow state legislatures full control of election law. If this is allowed to pass, and we’ll know by summer next year, then state legislatures in divided states could toss their election results, and gerrymander as aggressively as they want. This is a very fringe, dangerous legal theory that even this court might not allow. If they deem to do so, 2024’s elections could easily descend into chaos.

The mixed results make me really hesitant to commit to staying or leaving the country. I think that most countries worth emigrating to have age cut offs around 40, so I still have another few years to procrastinate before I’m hardened me into place here. It’s tough to really commit to upending your life, and I’ve already done it far more aggressively than most. Remaining in America will always have its perks, but it’s so disheartening to know that issues like universal health care, doing anything to deal with rampant gun violence or really taking the fight to the 1% are likely to never happen. The heat of elections are just so stressful now with knowing the fate of the country is on the line every two years. We have one often uninspiring party that wants to keep the system running despite its flaws, and the other, at best, a bad faith governing partner and at worst, openly flirting with autocracy and white christian supremacy. People will get tired of being told to vote the lesser evil as a responsibility to save the world with nothing to show for it sooner rather than later.

So, while I’m still here, I’m really struggling with how to exist as an American and express one’s displeasure with states that ban abortion or vote for these terrible candidates. I used to not think states like Oklahoma or Alabama were irredeemable because of their state politics, but that’s where I’m now at after two Trump elections, a pandemic and a chance here to say enough is enough after the political violence of Jan 6 two years past. It’s not so clean cut elsewhere though. How do I confront Georgia, which has two democratic senators that are directly responsible for the federal government functioning at all, but which also re-elects an anti-abortion, anti-voting rights governor. What about Wisconsin, which has banned abortion by default due to Roe’s overturn, ancient law and a gerrymandered legislature that is happy with that stalemate? And there are Texas and Florida to consider, the second and third largest states; both are increasingly conservative and frightening in their politics pursued, whether referring the parents of trans kids to authorities in Texas or manipulating migrants not even in state. That was Texas again, but ironically it was Florida under DeSantis who got in on the fun there.

Can I boycott all these states? Should I? It’s almost half the country now! There are a lot of wonderful natural places within them, and I have friends in several still. Hiking the Continental Divide or Appalachian trails both require crossing them, as will a cross country drive (or bike ride) once the last court battles and new legislative sessions settle each state’s positions. Ultimately, abortion is just going to the be the latest and brightest indicator of two Americas increasingly splitting regionally across ideological lines. A lot of people with means are going to opt out entirely of living their working lives where their rights are curtailed in addition to the bleaker economic prospects that already were exerting pressure outwards.

I think ultimately it’s going to be a blurred line of passive activism for me instead of an outright boycott with hard edges. In general cases, I will plan not to avail myself of any state with abortion bans, or that is persecuting trans youth. If there is a national park or wilderness within state lines I decide to see, I will keep my tourism there. If I’m just passing through, provisions are okay. But big events, hoteling, festive tourism or professional work in those states, I will seek to avoid. I’m hoping Arizona under Katie Hobbs turns its way around further, but unfortunately the statehouses here will still be Republican controlled, so a legislative fix for abortion is out of grasp until 2024 when a ballot referendum will surely restore access. That, I’m confident of, so the longterm prospects of the state are good, except the whole fresh water thing.

Not all is rosy in blue states though, as I’m left wondering, why did New York fail so bad? 5 of 6 competitive house races went red and Long Island completely collapsed. First, Eric Adams as NYC mayor, and now this! It seemed that attacks on bail and criminal justice reform have been most effective, but there’s a lot of smoke and mirrors going on with that to scare people. Mass incarceration in the States is an ugly thing, and we need to continue pushing forward on reforming it through all opposition. Also, this is a pretty remarkable slate of victories too for a party that five years back removed New Yorker’s exemptions above $10,000 on state taxes. A big self own if there ever was one for upper-middle class Republicans if you ask me. Affluent Orange County, CA, similarly has been stubbornly red since 2018’s blue wave, alas.

By the way, isn’t it bizarre seeing policies that democratic politicians would generally support pass by referendum in red states? I’m talking about things like abortion rights (5 for 5 in statewide referendi in 2022!), medicaid expansion, minimum wage increases, etc. All the while people still vote Republican in these states. Even Missouri passed recreational marijuana this cycle (albeit not North Dakota or Arkansas). It’s funny how the Democrat brand has just been turned toxic in rural places. Sure, the stereotypical overbearing big city liberal who hectors on good behavior and wants to take your guns makes for a good punching bag (hi!), but a lot of Dem politicians actually try to help these voters once you look past social issues. What are Republicans really doing for them? Providing cheap thrills by ‘owning the libs’ and pretending they got your back while things never get any better? What a joke.

So Trump’s announced for president again, surprising no one, especially not me who called it two years ago. I’m fairly indifferent. I still consider him and his supporters among the most odious of forces vying for control of this country, but pandora’s box was opened in 2016 with his nomination and election. Now, everything on the right is crazy in its wake and never going back. At least the fireworks will be amusing as the presidential race there develops, likely amidst vicious backbiting. I think Republicans will be stuck with Trump as their losing nominee again in 2024, or should he fail the primary, that he’ll take the party down with him for real. Those fireworks would be spectacular! I still wouldn’t underestimate him even if the talk show hosts and Republican politicians are. It’s pretty depressing to think we’re heading to a solid decade of Trump madness upon this country.

What about Joe Biden in 2024? He’s been an adequate president these two years; considering the divided government he had to work with, it’s amazing that anything got done. A lot of spending was passed, most of it positive. He did campaign on the slogan “nothing will fundamentally change” and stuck to it, and that’s about where we are at the end of these midterm elections. He is often cringe in old age, but not clouded in scandal nor an international embarrassment. The slanders of dementia from the right are unfair, but no will argue he ain’t past his prime. My hope would be he steps aside to allow the next generation to contest to lead this country. If he stayed in, I’d vote for any contender against him, but wouldn’t expect it to be competitive as I think that Dems generally will not want to rock the boat here. My gut instinct is that he’ll stay in and there won’t be a significant Democratic primary, and I’ll be stuck voting for him again in 2024.

At least in the wake of these elections it’s nice to write an article detailing my gripes and anxiety with our governmental system and its flaws, rather than as a witness, yet, to any widespread civic unrest or collapse. I still think this country is doomed more likely than not, but that these elections have at least prolonged the inevitable. We have a status quo where most people can eke out a living until they get some sort of sickness, drain their savings and die impoverished, but there’s a chance you might strike it rich so hang in there! For a lot of people, that might be enough, as long as we’re well entertained.